Edwards and Richardson are the only 2 democrats showing ads in Iowa.  It's a 100% guarantee that Richardson is not going to be the nominee.  I'm not certain Edwards will even be in the race by the time Iowa caucus' happen.  This is a race between Obama and Hillary, The future versus the past.  

By Edwards has a strong lead, I meant stronger than the last two polls, one of which showed him two points ahead, the other two points behind (though that was a crazy poll).

Updated for MOE.

I'd be happy to have Romney as the GOP nominee. It will be fun to nail the Republicans for someone who is the ultimate flip-flopper - 4 years after they did the same to us.

I am still having trouble finding a single person who plans to caucus for Clinton in my precinct.

And robliberal and georgep, before you start talking about the over-50 crowd, I should tell you that my neighborhood has a lot of empty nesters, and I come into contact with lots of my parents' friends (who are in their 60s, 70s or 80s).

Plenty of people like Clinton, but dismiss her as unelectable. Plenty of other people don't like Clinton.

I think there are way more undecideds than any poll would have you believe. My best guess is that 30 to 40 percent of the caucus-going Democrats I talk to are undecided. These are people who actually attended a precinct caucus in January 2004 (not just my precinct--all over central Iowa).

Great news

on the flip side, romney is good for dems 'cos he's a non-traditional candidate like clinton and obama. so he'll keep rethugs at home while the rest of the country go out in full force to capture the white house.

i'm actually glad that they like romney. by the way, romney will be good for america than guiliani. romney will return to his level head when if he wins the white house. rudy is scary; he has so much to prove to rethugs that he might govern more conservatively than GWB.

either way, romney has no cross over appeal among democrats and independents so he's our best hope. in that sense he's like clinton.

Romney's $350 million personal fortune has to help him.  That is a whole lot of money.

Clinton's ad was only on the internet so far.

You are correct, Obama has not run any ads in Iowa yet. He'll have plenty of money when he gets around to doing that...

IIRC, 400 is pretty common for statewide polls.

Notice that Fred and Newt are not included in that Iowa poll. That's what people missed while comparing it to others. Romney apparently swoops up the conservative support if Thompson and Gingrich are not among the choices.

It's true they are not running as of yet, but most recent GOP polls, national and statewide, have included them.

Romney is running TV ads while others are not, so he better be gaining.

I saw that article--I think that question is a proxy for, do you like Gore. It is different from asking if someone would caucus for Gore if he were running.

I know a few holdouts for Gore, but it's not 44 percent of Iowa Democrats.

Also, as a former Kerry supporter who worked hard for him in late 2003, I don't know anyone among former Kerry supporters who wishes he were running for president this time. He had his chance. That same poll is showing that 23 percent of Iowans supposedly wish Kerry were running for president. Doesn't sound right to me.

... for laying out the terrain for the campaign over the summer ... nobody serious is taking them as having any value in predicting the outcome, since there is just too much campaigning to go.

They certainly are far more useful to understanding the current state of play than the meaningless national polls.

Interesting.  The aggregate of ALL polling shows a tightening to a non-existing lead.  The one fading is Edwards (even with this poll added to the mix.)

At the end of the day, no matter how many "offices" you open, the public must vote for you.  And that is the bottomline.  If she does not connect to the Iowans, if they do not "like her" (keepin' it real, folks vote for who they like), then her support erodes and the support is soft at best.

The reporter from Washington Journal said it best this morning, Mr. Debois stated that this is going to be a "generational race".  And it is.  This campaign is about the past/establishment and the moving forward/the future.  And if Hillary can not get enough of the young engaged to vote for her, and Obama keep them engaged to vote for him, then this race is down to the wire.

At this point, I see Obama more momentum, he is drawing people from all across the sector and different races/economic groups.  But he will send Hillary Clinton a strong message, if the young people come out en masse for him.  If this happens, Hillary goes back to NY and finish out her senate term.

That poll in which Hillary was beating Edwards had tiny sample sizes, and had the gender distribution backwards from what it usually is.  I don't take it seriously.

I've noticed that realclearpolitics left the new desmoineregister.com poll out of their data..why is that?

Second,i've always wondered why Hillary is doing so great in states that aren't voting early, but doing poorly in Iowa,SC and NH.

She does have a lead in NH, but the 2 latest zogby poll is showing a tight race between her and Obama.

Hillary 28
Obama 26
Edwards 15

Her double digits lead in NH is no more...We also have a very close race in SC and the latest SC poll showed Obama with a 4 poin lead.

So, george, why can't I post a diary about a single poll, when you and rob diary about just about every poll released?
And how can it be, since Edwards lead is stonger here than in other recent polls, and Hillary is weaker, that it's further tightening in the averages?

And you cannot say this is a worse poll than the fucked up one that showed Hillary ahead.  That one had ridiculous samples.

The Desmoines Register historically has been the best poll for the IA caucuses. They know the process and have an excellent record in determing a caucus attendee.

Previous posts on IA I have stated let's see what the register's poll has to say. I believe this poll carries far more weight than the other polls for IA. The worst poll historically for the IA caucuses has been the ARG poll.

The Desmoines Register endorsed John  Edwards just prior to the Caucuses and is given a lot of credit for his good showing in IA. HE FINISHED WITH 32% of the vote to Kerry's 38

I saw the Chris Mathews show tonight and he mentioned this poll and the results were splashed all over the screen.

He seemed surprise that John Edwards was leading and Hillary was in 3rd place.

I donot think I have seen any other poll of a primary nature splashed on the tv set like this poll. I certainly see a lot of national polls shown on TV.

i KNOW THE IMPORTANCE OF THE dESMOINES rEGISTER IN IA AND OF COURSE THIS POLL WILL GET A BIG PLAY.